Rooting for points is fun, but money is more fun. Prepare to cheer for defenses in Week 10.
As always, be sure to shop around for the best numbers.
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams
Wager: Under 50.5
There’s no other way to cut it: The Los Angeles Rams are going to score points. It’s just a matter of how many.
Last weekend, the Seattle Seahawks were one Russell Wilson pick-6 away from holding five of their last six opponents to under 20 points. The only exception? The Rams back in Week 5. Seattle’s defense is a pretty middling, bend-but-don’t break unit – average in terms of yards per play allowed, but No. 6 in the NFL in scoring.
The Rams’ offense is still potent, but it might be regressing just a bit. Despite hanging 35 on the New Orleans Saints last weekend, the Rams have averaged 6.3 yards per play over their last four games, as opposed to 7.4 over their first five.
The icing on this play is Seattle’s knack for playing in low-scoring divisional road games, a nugget we dug up earlier in the week.
Washington Redskins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Wager: Under 51
A Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense that’s allowing the most adjusted yards per play of any team in the NFL might catch a break in Week 10 when the Washington Redskins pay a visit.
The Buccaneers’ schedule hasn’t exactly been a cakewalk. They’ve faced six teams that rank in the top 11 in the league in scoring, and their two other opponents were the Eagles and the Browns. Tampa allowed 21 and 23 points in those contests, respectively.
Washington lost three offensive starters in last week’s game against the Atlanta Falcons and was already having a difficult time scoring – it’s 26th in the league with 20.0 points per game.
We’ve gotten accustomed to Tampa Bay barnburners this season, but don’t expect one on Sunday.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts
Wager: Jaguars +3
If the Jacksonville Jaguars, currently on an 0-4 skid, are going to turn the corner, there’s no better opportunity than Sunday against the Indianapolis Colts.
First, the Jaguars are coming off a bye and play as the road team. Teams in this situation are on a blistering 60-23 run against the spread.
Second, it’s the right opponent for quarterback Blake Bortles to show out against. Across his last six games against Indianapolis, he’s posted an average quarterback rating of 105.3 to go along with 10 total touchdowns and zero interceptions.
The perception of both teams has changed drastically from early in the season. The Jaguars haven’t won since September, while the Colts offense’ has gotten praise for scoring plenty of points on the Jets, Bills, and Raiders.
To top it off, Jacksonville still owns the edge over Indianapolis in adjusted yards per play (both for and against). We like the points here.
Los Angeles Chargers at Oakland Raiders
Recommended Pick: Over 50
The Oakland Raiders’ defense is an absolute mess. If allowing 34 points to the Nick Mullens-led San Francisco 49ers wasn’t embarrassing enough, the Raiders now welcome one of the hottest offenses in the entire league.
There should be enough points from the road team and some contributions from a pass-happy Oakland offense to get this one over the total.
New Orleans Saints at Cincinnati Bengals
Recommended Pick: Under 54
Through the first half of the Cincinnati Bengals’ season, the offense has been night and day.
Weeks 1-4: 31.5 points per game, 6.1 yards per play
Weeks 5-8: 23.8 points per game, 5.3 yards per play
The defensive competition in Cincinnati’s last four games wasn’t all that stiff either, including matchups with the Dolphins, Chiefs, and Bucs (all among the NFL’s bottom seven teams in yards per play allowed). And now the Bengals’ offense is missing its biggest weapon with wide receiver A.J. Green sidelined until late November.
New Orleans should be able to get its fair share of points against a porous Cincinnati defense, but we don’t expect this to be the track meet that the number suggests.
Top plays: 18-7-1 (72 percent)
Overall record: 29-14-1 (67.4 percent)
Alex Kolodziej is theScore’s betting writer. He’s a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 11 years. He can quote every line from “Rounders” and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AlexKoIodziej.